Thursday, November 01, 2012

The Big Short - by Michael Lewis


简介(摘自豆瓣)

The #1 New York Times bestseller: a brilliant account—character-rich and darkly humorous—of how the U.S. economy was driven over the cliff. When the crash of the U. S. stock market became public knowledge in the fall of 2008, it was already old news. The real crash, the silent crash, had taken place over the previous year, in bizarre feeder markets where the sun doesn’t shine, and the SEC doesn’t dare, or bother, to tread: the bond and real estate derivative markets where geeks invent impenetrable securities to profit from the misery of lower- and middle-class Americans who can’t pay their debts. The smart people who understood what was or might be happening were paralyzed by hope and fear; in any case, they weren’t talking.

The crucial question is this: Who understood the risk inherent in the assumption of ever-rising real estate prices, a risk compounded daily by the creation of those arcane, artificial securities loosely based on piles of doubtful mortgages? Michael Lewis turns the inquiry on its head to create a fresh, character-driven narrative brimming with indignation and dark humor, a fitting sequel to his #1 best-selling Liar’s Poker . Who got it right? he asks. Who saw the real estate market for the black hole it would become, and eventually made billions of dollars from that perception? And what qualities of character made those few persist when their peers and colleagues dismissed them as Chicken Littles? Out of this handful of unlikely—really unlikely—heroes, Lewis fashions a story as compelling and unusual as any of his earlier bestsellers, proving yet again that he is the finest and funniest chronicler of our times.


读后感

读到后来危机发生FED和Treasury出场的时候,觉得自己在MAS做的工作还是蛮有意义的。虽然说自己现在只是遵循着一个已经成型的框架,但是既然自己能被说服,大体上也是没有错的。而且从上半年INCOME那次securitisation的事情看来,老板们即便对具体的financial instrument没了解得那么彻底,但在fundamental上还是很明白的。万变不离其宗,把握住最基本的东西,其它再怎么晃眼也不被迷惑。
另外,自己前段时间在做的Sup CAR framework,难说以后会不会成为另一个大东西。尽管自己还人微言轻,而且看问题不够深入,但努力想尽力想,至少做好working level的本职,也是一个对整个insurance sector整个社会,和对自己的负责。

在CDO价格已经开始下降但很多IB trader咬牙说价格是95的时候,Greg Lippmann突然说自己做一个market,bid 70,ask 77--要么70买了Lippmann的CDO,要么以77继续卖给Lippmann。这个弄得对方哑口无言。不知道以后要是碰到有价无市的时候能不能举一反三。

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